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High fuel prices in Nigeria are here to stay in the near future, economic experts say

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High fuel prices in Nigeria have become the new reality, and it seems they’re here to stay for the foreseeable future. If you’re reading this, you’re probably already feeling the pinch, the same way millions of Nigerians are, every time you fill up your tank or catch a ride. It’s not just a slight inconvenience anymore—it’s a full-blown crisis for many. But how did we get here? And, more importantly, why does it seem like things won’t get better anytime soon?

High Fuel Prices

Let me paint you a picture. Imagine being a father of three in Lagos—one of the busiest and most chaotic cities in Nigeria. Let’s call him Emeka. Every day, Emeka wakes up at 5 a.m. to beat the infamous Lagos traffic, hopping into his aging Toyota Corolla, hoping to make it to work on time. The daily grind has always been tough, but lately, it’s become unbearable. Not because of the usual hustle and bustle, but because the cost of fuel keeps eating away at his salary. He looks at the meter ticking at the petrol station and wonders if things will ever go back to how they used to be when fuel was affordable, and his paycheck didn’t disappear before the middle of the month. Unfortunately, the truth is, Emeka’s reality—our reality—may not change for a while.

The Ever-Rising Cost of Fuel

It wasn’t too long ago when petrol prices were relatively stable. A few years back, Nigerians enjoyed a fuel price that hovered around ₦145 per litre. Life was already tough, but at least the fuel was manageable. Then came the gradual price hikes, punctuated by the removal of fuel subsidies, international oil market volatility, and the devaluation of the naira. All these factors combined to push petrol prices to unimaginable heights. As of now, petrol is hovering around ₦620 per litre in many parts of the country, and let’s not even get started on diesel prices. They’re even scarier.

What’s painful about these hikes is that they affect everything—literally everything. It’s not just about the fuel you put in your car. The food you buy at the market is transported on vehicles that run on fuel, the price of goods goes up because manufacturers and suppliers are all paying more for energy, and even small businesses that rely on generators for power can barely afford to keep the lights on. It feels like we’re living in a vicious cycle where every naira earned is spent just trying to keep up.

Why the Prices Are High (and Staying High)

You may be wondering, “Why can’t the government just do something about this?!” Trust me, that’s a valid question. It’s one I ask myself every time I pass by a petrol station. It’s not that the government isn’t aware of our struggles. In fact, they know full well how these prices are squeezing the life out of the average Nigerian. But here’s the tough part: there’s no easy solution.

Let’s break it down a bit. Nigeria, despite being one of the largest oil producers in the world, has a serious refining problem. Most of the crude oil extracted in Nigeria is exported, and in return, we import refined petroleum products like petrol and diesel. The costs of importing refined fuel, coupled with the exchange rate challenges, mean that prices are largely dictated by the global market. And with the naira’s value constantly dropping, the cost of importing these products keeps rising. You see, it’s like being stuck between a rock and a hard place.

There’s also the issue of subsidies. For years, the Nigerian government subsidized fuel, essentially making it cheaper for consumers. But subsidies come at a cost—an enormous cost. The government couldn’t keep footing the bill indefinitely, especially as the country’s debt kept piling up. In 2023, President Tinubu finally pulled the plug on the subsidy program, arguing that it was no longer sustainable. His decision has sparked both anger and understanding, depending on who you ask, but the end result is clear: we’re now paying the true cost of fuel, and it’s not cheap.

A Nationwide Struggle (High Fuel Prices)

Across the country, people are feeling the heat. From the bustling streets of Lagos to the more rural areas of Northern Nigeria, the cost of fuel is leaving its mark. Small business owners are some of the hardest hit. Take Maryam, for example. She runs a small provision store in Kano, selling everything from soft drinks to snacks. Before the price hikes, she used to run her store with the help of a small generator, but now, she can barely afford to fuel it. The price of diesel has doubled, and her sales have halved because customers are spending more on transportation and food, leaving little left for extras like snacks.

Maryam isn’t alone. I spoke to a friend of mine who runs a poultry farm in Ibadan, and he’s facing the same struggles. The cost of feeding the birds has gone up because the price of transporting feed has increased. Not to mention, running the farm’s operations with a generator has become nearly impossible. He’s already had to let go of two workers just to stay afloat. “At this rate, I don’t know if I’ll be able to keep the farm running by next year,” he confessed to me over a WhatsApp call. His voice was heavy with worry, and I could feel his frustration through the phone.

In urban areas, the high cost of fuel is also pushing up transportation fares. If you live in Lagos or Abuja, you probably know what I’m talking about. The daily commute that used to cost ₦200 now costs ₦500 or more, depending on the distance. And for those who rely on public transportation to get to work, school, or the market, this increase is a bitter pill to swallow. Even the ride-hailing services like Uber and Bolt have had to adjust their prices to keep up with the rising fuel costs. So, it doesn’t matter if you’re driving your own car or catching a bus—everyone is feeling it.

The Domino Effect on Everyday Life

One of the things that strike me the most about the fuel price crisis is the way it ripples through every part of life. It’s not just about how much it costs to drive your car or run your generator; it’s about how those costs multiply and spread. Take for example something as simple as buying tomatoes at the market. The tomatoes are grown on a farm somewhere, likely in the northern part of the country, where the fuel costs to run irrigation systems and transport water have already gone up. Then they’re packed and loaded onto trucks for the long journey south, and guess what? The trucks run on diesel. By the time the tomatoes get to Lagos or Port Harcourt, the price has doubled or even tripled from what it was last year.

I remember going to the market a few weeks ago with ₦5,000 in my pocket, thinking I’d stock up on groceries for the week. I left with just a small bag of rice, a few vegetables, and some palm oil. It was shocking how little I could buy with what used to be a decent amount of money. And I know I’m not alone in this. Friends of mine have told me the same thing—how their grocery bills have shot through the roof and they’re now cutting back on meals or stretching food longer than before.

The worst part is that the price hikes don’t stop at the market. The same thing is happening in schools. Parents are being asked to pay more in school fees because the cost of running the schools has increased. And if you’re thinking of building or renovating your house, brace yourself, because construction costs are skyrocketing too. Everything from cement to iron rods is more expensive, all thanks to the cost of transporting materials across the country.

On High Fuel Prices Looking Ahead: Is There Any Hope?

Given all this doom and gloom, it’s fair to ask: is there any hope? Can we expect things to get better anytime soon? The short answer is: probably not. Economic experts have been pretty clear that the high fuel prices we’re seeing now are likely to stick around for the foreseeable future. As long as Nigeria remains reliant on imported fuel, and as long as the naira continues to weaken, fuel prices will remain high.

But it’s not all bad news. There are some signs of progress. The long-awaited Dangote Refinery, once fully operational, could help reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel. If we can start refining more of our own oil, we might see some relief in prices. But even that’s not guaranteed. The global oil market is notoriously volatile, and local factors like security and infrastructure challenges can still impact the price of fuel.

Another potential solution lies in renewable energy. While it may seem like a distant dream for most Nigerians, the truth is that solar energy is becoming more accessible. In fact, some businesses and households have already started investing in solar panels to cut down on their reliance on petrol and diesel generators. It’s not a quick fix, but it could be part of the long-term solution.

Still, for the average Nigerian like Emeka, Maryam, and my friend in Ibadan, the current reality is grim. They don’t have the luxury of waiting for a refinery to come online or for the government to roll out large-scale solar initiatives. They need relief now, and unfortunately, it’s hard to see where that’s going to come from.

Finding a Way Forward: Adapting and Surviving

So where does that leave us? How do we, as ordinary Nigerians, cope with the reality of high fuel prices? The answer, as it always has been in Nigeria, is to adapt and survive.

One thing I’ve noticed is how resilient Nigerians are. Despite all the challenges, people are finding ways to make things work. Some have started carpooling to save on fuel costs. Others are cutting back on non-essential trips, choosing to stay home instead of going out. Small businesses are finding creative ways to cut costs

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