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Businesses brace for high inflation to stick around over next two years

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I’ll be honest—when I first started hearing about inflation going through the roof, I didn’t think too much of it. It was one of those things that felt distant, something I didn’t fully understand. Like, sure, prices were creeping up, but it didn’t seem too out of control yet. And then it hit me—literally at the grocery store. I remember staring at a carton of eggs, which had suddenly shot up in price, and thinking, Wait, wasn’t this like half the price just a couple of months ago? That’s when it became real, and I realized that inflation wasn’t just some economic buzzword on the news—it was happening right in front of me, and I wasn’t the only one feeling it.

high inflation

Businesses, big and small, are feeling the heat too. And now, many are bracing for high inflation to stick around for the next couple of years, maybe longer. That’s a tough pill to swallow. I’ve spoken to a few friends who run small businesses, and let me tell you, they’re feeling the pinch in ways that go far beyond the occasional sticker shock at the grocery store.

The Rising Cost of Everything

One of my friends, Mike, owns a small bakery, and he’s been having a rough go of it lately. Mike’s been running this place for years—it’s one of those cozy neighborhood spots where you can always smell fresh bread and cinnamon rolls from a block away. He’s weathered all kinds of challenges—slow seasons, unexpected equipment breakdowns, you name it. But inflation? That’s a whole new beast.

The cost of flour, sugar, and all those other basic ingredients have skyrocketed, and it’s not like Mike can just stop buying them. He needs them to keep the doors open. He’s tried everything—buying in bulk, cutting down on non-essentials, raising prices ever so slightly—but the bottom line is still hurting. And, of course, he’s not the only one. Every business that relies on raw materials is seeing their costs soar.

It’s not just the cost of ingredients either. Energy prices have jumped, and so have wages. Mike told me how he’s trying to balance it all—making sure his employees are paid fairly while also keeping the lights on. “It’s like walking a tightrope,” he said. “I can’t just double my prices, or I’ll lose my customers, but if I don’t raise them at all, I won’t survive.” It’s that Catch-22 situation so many businesses are facing right now. Do you raise prices and risk losing customers, or do you absorb the costs and risk going under?

Inflation’s Ripple Effect

It’s not just small businesses either. Large companies are feeling the squeeze too. The thing with inflation is that it has this nasty ripple effect that touches every corner of the economy. When raw materials get more expensive, manufacturing gets more expensive. When manufacturing gets more expensive, the products on store shelves get more expensive. It’s this endless cycle, and everyone is caught in it—businesses and consumers alike.

I’ve heard from another friend who works for a major retailer. She mentioned how their company is bracing for high inflation to stick around for the next couple of years, maybe even longer. They’ve already had to pass on some of those rising costs to customers, and they’re expecting they’ll have to keep doing so. “People are frustrated,” she said. “They come in expecting the usual deals, and they leave shocked at how much prices have gone up.”

And it’s true. We’re all used to the idea of sales, discounts, and getting a good bargain, but inflation has thrown a wrench into that expectation. It’s no longer about looking for the best deal—it’s about trying to keep up with prices that seem to be climbing every time we blink. And it’s not like salaries are increasing at the same rate as prices. Businesses know this, but they also know that if they don’t raise prices, they’ll be the ones out of business.

Tough Choices for Small Businesses

I can’t help but think about how hard this must be for people like Mike. He’s in a position where he can’t just make big sweeping decisions without thinking about the real impact on his loyal customers, many of whom have been coming to his bakery for years. I asked him what he thought about the next couple of years, and he gave me this look, a mix of determination and concern. “I’ll figure it out,” he said. “But it’s going to be tough.”

And that’s the thing—businesses are resilient, especially small ones, because they don’t have much of a choice. But it’s going to take a lot of figuring out. For some, it means shifting their business models, cutting down on services, or even scaling back on hours. I’ve already noticed some of the cafes and restaurants in my neighborhood closing earlier than usual. They simply can’t afford to keep the doors open for as long as they used to.

Mike, for example, has started experimenting with his menu. Instead of offering his full range of pastries every day, he rotates them based on what ingredients are cheaper that week. One day, you might find chocolate croissants, but the next day, they’re replaced by something else entirely. It’s a little sad to see the variety shrink, but it’s a smart way to cope.

The Role of Wages

Another layer to this whole situation is wages. While businesses are seeing their costs rise, employees are feeling the pressure too. Everyone is asking for raises, and understandably so. Rent’s gone up, gas prices are higher, and basic living expenses are eating into people’s paychecks. But from a business perspective, giving everyone a raise when profits are already being squeezed by inflation? It’s a real conundrum.

It’s not that business owners don’t want to pay their workers more. In fact, most of the ones I’ve spoken to would love to offer raises across the board. But when you’re barely keeping the lights on, it’s hard to justify increasing payroll. Some have had to make tough choices—cutting hours, laying off staff, or putting a freeze on hiring altogether.

Mike hasn’t had to let anyone go yet, but I could tell it’s something that weighs on him. He’s a good guy, the kind of boss who sees his employees as family. But when push comes to shove, keeping the business afloat has to come first. “It’s not about being greedy,” he said to me one day, almost defensively. “I just don’t want to be in a position where I have to shut down and everyone loses their job.”

Uncertainty in the Future

The big question on everyone’s mind right now is: How long is this going to last? When is inflation going to cool down? And the truth is, no one really knows. Some economists say we might be stuck with higher inflation for at least the next two years, while others are more optimistic, hoping things will stabilize sooner. But if you ask business owners, most of them are preparing for the worst-case scenario. They’re buckling down, tightening budgets, and planning for inflation to be a persistent issue for the foreseeable future.

I’ve seen some businesses try to adapt by getting creative. Some are pivoting to online sales, others are offering fewer products but focusing on higher quality, and a few are even collaborating with other local businesses to share costs. There’s a sense of camaraderie among small business owners—everyone’s in the same boat, trying to ride out this storm together. But even with all the creative solutions, it’s still an uphill battle.

Finding a Silver Lining

Amidst all this uncertainty, there’s still a glimmer of hope. Businesses are incredibly resilient. Time and time again, we’ve seen them adapt to new challenges—whether it’s the rise of e-commerce, global pandemics, or economic downturns. Inflation is just another hurdle, albeit a tough one.

I think about Mike and his bakery, and I know he’ll find a way to keep things going. It won’t be easy, and he might have to make more tough choices along the way, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned from watching small business owners, it’s that they don’t give up easily. They’re scrappy, resourceful, and above all, determined to keep serving their communities.

And for the rest of us? We’ll keep adjusting, just like we always do. Maybe we’ll spend a little less, maybe we’ll rethink how we budget, but we’ll find a way to manage. It’s what we’ve always done.

At the end of the day, inflation or not, life keeps moving forward. Businesses will keep baking, selling, and serving, and we’ll keep supporting them the best we can. We might not know exactly when this inflation rollercoaster will end, but we’re all in this together, trying to make it through one step, one dollar, and one tough decision at a time.

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